Why is resemblance not a reliable indicator of probability?
Resemblance is not a reliable indicator of probability because an outcome can look like the expected result of a process while still being highly unlikely, especially if the base rate of that process is low. Conversely, an outcome that appears unexpected can still be probable if its base rate is high, highlighting the importance of statistical reasoning over intuitive judgments.
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This is one answer. The complete system — the psychology, the biology, and the method — is in the book.
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